New Release Article

KNMI Press Release --- number WO 95/06E --- date 23 March 1995

First European Climate Assessment: most of Europe shows a rising in temperatures, but cooling in Eastern Mediterranean and North Atlantic

During the present century almost all stations across Europe have indicated a warming. Observations of precipitation show an increase over most of northern Europe and a decrease or unchanged situation over Southern Europe. Sunshine duration, all over Europe, shows irregular changes but no systematic trend.

These are the most important conclusions of the First European Climate Assessment, initiated by the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) at De Bilt. Being a co-production of the members of the European Climate Support Network (ECSN), this first European Climate Assessment focuses on Western Europe. Its purpose is a discussion of the present climate of Europe and its recent past in the perspective of predicted changes due to the increasing greenhouse effect of the atmosphere.

Objective analysis of the available observations shows the following:

* Most European stations show a rising in temperature. For the decade 1981-1990, as compared to 1951-1980, the warming was of the order of 0,25-0,50°C, but cooling was observed over the eastern Mediterranean and over a large area of the North Atlantic, including Greenland.

* Observations of precipitation show an increase over most of northern Europe and a decrease or unchanged situation over southern Europe. Changes are of the order of 20% plus or minus.

* Sunshine duration, like temperature and precipitation, shows irregular changes, but no systematic trend. However, for the stations considered a tendency towards increasing cloudiness is observed. This remarkable change can be explained by the increase of nocturnal cloudiness and cirriform clouds, which allow transmission of solar radiation.

* The occurrence of climate extremes like droughts, heat waves, storms and heavy precipitation has certainly not been restricted to recent years. Because of the rareness of such events and the limited extent of the observational records no attempt was made to derive systematic time changes. Available data however show that the frequency of occurrence of certain extremes is independent of the average climate conditions at a particular station during the present century.

Compared to the predicted changes due to the enhanced greenhouse effect, some of the observed changes are in line with the predicted pattern while others are not. In the assessment this is shown in a special table, summarizing at the same time some of the results of European climate models. It should be stressed however that these European climate predictions do not take into consideration the cooling effects of atmospheric aerosols.

Basically the first European Climate Assessment, that at the beginning of April will be presented to the delegations at the first Conference of the Parties of the UN Climate Convention in Berlin, should be considered as a reference, rather than a document on the detection of the greenhouse effect in the climate of Europe. Observationally, as well as theoretically, we may conclude that at this stage the climate change of Europe is still mostly affected by natural variability. On the other hand we know that the limited support for the predicted changes we get from observations at the present stage does not mean that these predictions for the next century are wrong or not reliable. In this sense the first European Climate Assessment may constitute a starting point, for in the next 25 years the climate of Europe may indeed show clear signals of change exceeding the limits of natural variability.

The European Climate Support Network (ECSN) is a joint venture of National Meteorological Services (NMSs) of Europe to promote greater collaboration in climate data collection, data processing, modeling, exchange of personnel and the united development of recommendations. This follows the signature, in December 1992, of a Memorandum of Understanding and the agreement of a programme of Collaborative Scientific and Technical projects.

The sixteen National Meteorological Services which are the signatorics of the MoU are those of: Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and United Kingdom. Also, the NMSs of Germany and Italy have the status of regular observers in ECSN.

A Board of Directors, a Scientific and Technical Advisory Group and a Secretariat are the ECSN governing bodies. The Secretariat is located in Madrid.

For the publication of the first European Climate Assessment financial support was received from the ENRICH Office of the EU in Brussels.

For further information, please contact Harry Geurts, Public Relations KNMI, Po Box 201, 3730 AE De Bilt, the Netherlands.

Telephone +31 30 206 317

(after office hours) +31 6 53 214 364 or +31 30 206 572

Telefax +31 30 211 195 or + 31 30 21 04 07

Dutch version available: http://www.knmi.nl/KLIMAAT/persbericht.html

*	Most European stations show a rising in temperature. For the decade 1981-1990, as compared to 1951-1980, the warming was of the order of 0,25-0,50°C, but cooling was observed over the eastern Mediterranean and over a large area of the North Atlantic, including Greenland.
*	Observations of precipitation show an increase over most of northern Europe and a decrease or unchanged situation over southern Europe. Changes are of the order of 20% plus or minus.
*	Sunshine duration, like temperature and precipitation, shows irregular changes, but no systematic trend. However, for the stations considered a tendency towards increasing cloudiness is observed. This remarkable change can be explained by the increase of nocturnal cloudiness and cirriform clouds, which allow transmission of solar radiation.
*	The occurrence of climate extremes like droughts, heat waves, storms and heavy precipitation has certainly not been restricted to recent years. Because of the rareness of such events and the limited extent of the observational records no attempt was made to derive systematic time changes. Available data however show that the frequency of occurrence of certain extremes is independent of the average climate conditions at a particular station during the present century.

Telephone	+31 30 206 317
(after office hours)	+31 6 53 214 364 or +31 30 206 572
Telefax	+31 30 211 195 or + 31 30 21 04 07