Pre-Class Preparation Pre-Class Preparation
Objectives
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Class Discussion
Summary prepared by: Gregory M. Cillo, Ryan Kardell, and Rustan KrentzSummary Section: We need to evaluate the impact of the rates of change now occurring and expected over the next 60 years. Global climate models are the best tools used to estimate future changes in the global climate. Terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, human health, and socioeconomic systems such as agriculture, forestry, fisheries and water resources, are key elements of human development and well being that are all sensitive to climate change. The impact of climate change on these areas is not uniform; in fact, some will experience beneficial consequences while others will suffer irreversible detrimental change. Climate change is adding a stress, which is difficult and sometimes impossible to evaluate.
Adaptation suggests that humans are either unwilling or unable to collectively change their behavior to a sufficient level to mitigate stress due to human-induced climate change, and that resources should be focused on "hardening" the impacted systems so that they might better be able to withstand the increased stress due to climate change.
The efficiency and effectiveness of adaptation strategies will depend on the availability of financial resources, technology transfer, and cultural, educational, managerial, institutional, legal, and regulatory practices, both domestic and international
Some systems and geographic locations have better adaptive capacity than others do. The level of economic and institutional resources in a community or region influences the capability for adaptation. Less developed countries, more likely to be lacking such resources, are more vulnerable to negative impacts of climate change.
Clear and unambiguous detection of climate change and its impacts on various systems are difficult. Climate change itself is difficult to detect, so evaluating the effect of small changes of climate on natural systems is doubly difficult. Temperature changes of 2 to 4 degrees C or precipitation changes of 200 mm per year can cause significant changes in the boundary regions between these biomes.
1. Forests
Global warming at a rate of 1.5 to 3.5 degrees over the next 100 years is equivalent to a poleward shift of isotherms of 150 to 550 km or 150 to 550 m altitude shift in mountainous areas over the same period. Typical forest migration rates, by contrast, are estimated to be 4 to 200 km per century.2. Rangelands
Rangelands are sometimes defined as unimproved grasslands, shrublands, savannas, deserts, and tundra. They occupy 51% of the earth's land surface and contain about 36% of the total living and dead plant carbon. Small changes in extreme temperatures and precipitation have disproportionately large effects in these regions because of the vulnerability to water availability and water balance.3. Deserts
Deserts are characterized by extremely high temperatures and extremely low rainfall. These extremes are likely to increase under climate change. Desertification is more likely to be irreversible if the environment becomes drier.4. Cryosphere
Regions of snow, ice, and permafrost comprise the cryosphere. These regions have provided some of the most notable indications of global warming over the last century. Changes in the cryosphere produce changes in water availability from melt water for cities, agriculture and hydroelectric power generation. Reduction in high-latitude ice fields change global albedo and allow thawing permafrost to release methane hydrates.5. Mountain regions
Warming in mountain regions changes snow cover and may impact water supplies, tourism, logging, and hydropower production. Ecosystems unique to specific mid-slope locations may migrate upslope in a warmer climate, but ecosystems indigenous to mountain-top locations have nowhere to migrate under such changes.Changes will likely happen to aquatic systems too.
1. Lakes and Streams
Climate change will alter temperatures, flow conditions, and water levels which, in turn, affect species survival, reproduction and growth. Changes in mean and variability of precipitation patterns affect ecosystem productivity and biological diversity. Not all impacts are negative, however: high latitude lakes that might experience longer ice-free conditions and enhanced biological productivity.2. Coastal ecosystems
Coastal ecosystems are highly active in production of plant carbon from atmospheric carbon dioxide. Coastal wetlands also are rich and diverse ecosystems. Human-induced changes in these regions, together with impacts of climate change such as sea-level rise and warming, create enhanced stresses on fragile natural systems.3. Oceans
Oceans occupy 71% of the surface of the planet. Evaporation and CO2 balance at the ocean surface is very temperature dependent. Climate change may alter sea level and ocean circulation, vertical mixing, and sea-ice cover. These, in turn, will affect nutrient availability, biological productivity, structure and functioning of marine ecosystems, and heat and carbon storage capacity. Water temperatures will increase and cause changes in the precipitation patterns. Such changes have implications for coastal human settlements, fisheries, tourism, recreation, transport, and off-shore structures.Water is a critical element of national welfare and productivity because of the role it plays in many forms of consumptive use, ranging from drinking, to sanitation, recreation, irrigation, power production, transportation, and many other uses. It is vulnerable to degradation of both quantity and quality. Increased uncertainty in future supply and demand for water raises the urgency of developing sound water management strategies even in regions now not experiencing water resource difficulties.
Food and fiber production may be influenced by (a) direct effects of changes in temperature, water balance, atmospheric composition, and extreme events, and (b) indirect effects through changes in distribution frequency and severity of pest and disease outbreaks, incidence of fire and weed infestations or through changes in soil properties. Fisheries are vulnerable to changes in water temperature, water levels, precipitation patterns, and ocean circulation patterns.
1. Agriculture
Global agricultural production is relatively insensitive to global climate change of the magnitude previously determined to be expected in the next 60 years. However, marginal lands, much of which lies in developing countries, will be more prone to reduced yields due to increased frequency of crop failure and land degradation and desertification. Some regions, such and Canada and Russia can expect increased yields. Adaptation of farming practices through new crops, improved water management, better strategies on crop selection and planting will buffer adverse effects.2. Forestry
Tropical forests seem more vulnerable to land-use changes than climate change. Boreal forests are more vulnerable to reduction due to climate change. Increased demand for wood for various human uses will create increased pressure of global forest supplies.3. Fisheries
Current levels of overfishing have more negative impact than projected climate changes. High latitude production of fish in open waters and through aquaculture likely will increase. Smaller lakes and streams will be more negatively impacted by climate change than large rivers and larger bodies of water. Loss of coastal wetlands as essential breeding grounds may have significant impact. Also Human infrastructure will change.1. Industry, Energy, and Transportation
Most human infrastructure elements are insensitive to climate change, except some such as agriculture, hydropower production, transportation in marginally navigable rivers. Demand for air conditioning will increase.2. Coastal Zones and Small Islands
Sea-level rise will be particularly troublesome for some coastal zones and small islands.3. Insurance
Increased frequency of extreme events and disproportionate increase of population in regions vulnerable to natural disasters are already increasing insurance payouts due to climatic events. Climate change will also affect Human health1. Direct
Increased frequency of extreme warm events (heatwaves) will cause a large impact on human health.
Altered frequency and intensity of tornadoes, hurricanes, storm surge, and lightning will impact human health and welfare.2. Indirect
Ecological
Changed populations, patterns and movement of pests and infective parasites due to climate change will put different human populations at risk.Other
Sea-level rise and more extreme events causes more frequent displacements of populations and damage to infrastructure such as water supplies and sanitation systems.Lecture section:
We asked what kind of change can we expect in the next 60 yrs.
We also talked how there will be winners and losers over this time frame as a result of climate change. We also discussed how this brings up an ethical issue among countries and religions of how we implant adaptation or mitigation changes.
We also discussed the two results of climate change.
1. Mitigation- reverse the change in the climate. This results to change in human behavior.
2. Adaptation- live with the consequences of climate change and reduce or vulnerability.We need to address many issues in climate change. How quickly can we adjust. We know developed countries can do it faster then undeveloped countries. Undeveloped countries lack the resources.
Dialog section:
Three students talked about the problem to ponder. One of them stated rodents are a very adaptive group of organisms. They eat a wide variety of things and live in a wide variety of places. This is why they do so well around humans. Many species are endangered because of habitat loss, while the rodents are doing just fine with humans when rodents encounter humans. Another student talked about the spread of diseases on rodents and how the diseases will be more severe with warmer temperatures and that they will spread faster. Another student yet talked about how rodents reproduce in great numbers. He also discussed how the rodents are quite strong and adaptive to changing conditions while their predators are not.
Another student found some information on how satellites take measurements on the vegetation of the earth. Another student looked into the world market and each individual country to see the impact climate change would have on the country's and world's market.
Post-Class Activities
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Potential climate changes impact
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Sensitivity,
Adaptability
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Impact on mountian vegetation
zones |
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Sillett, T. S., R. T. Holmes, and W. T. Sherry, 2000: Impacts of a
global climate cycle on population dynamics of a migratory songbird.
Science 288, 2040-2042. |
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Changing Climate May Hurt Less Developed Countries, Help Developed Ones
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Projected Impacts of Climate Change. (through EPA) |
 | Potential Impacts of Sea-Level Rise on Populations and Agriculture from the Sustainable Development Dept. (SD), Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) |
| Johnston, K., M., and O. J. Schmitz, 1997: Wildlife and climate change: assessing the sensitivity of selected species to simulated doubling of atmspheric CO2. Global Change Biology 3, 531-544. |
| Strzepek, K. M., and J. B. Smith, 1995:
As Climate Changes: International Impacts and Implications. Cambridge University Press. 213
pp. (Topics include world food supply, complex river basins, global sea-level rise, human health, global forests, impacts on Egypt, and adaptation policy). |
| Winnet, Steven M., 1998: Potential effects of climate change on US forests: a review. Climate Research, 11, 39-49. |
